We would like to share some numbers and comments on Turkish Sultana Market as we have just closed the first month of 2018.
As most of you are well aware, Turkish Sultana prices had caught a wind and gradually increased from early December to mid-January. Probably the reason for this increase seems to be a combination of below factors:
- High prices due to crop shortages in other origins, mainly Iran and the US.
- High demand and good pace of exports.
- Raw material purchases at the bourse at prices higher than market norms of that period.
- Farmers’ reluctance to sell due to expectations of higher raw material prices.
Prices experienced a small drop in mid-January. This is most likely because of the fact that Iran started selling old crop fruit approximately 200 USD per ton less than Turkish prices. This has led to slowing the pace of Turkish dried sultana exports.
Market seems to have settled at current levels for now. The prediction of the prices will remain at current levels throughout February. After February, Turkey may encounter another string of attempts to raise prices by high priced raw material purchases but this is hard to predict. Some believe that because there is significant amount of raw material in the hands of traders and packers now, power of influence on prices has shifted from farmers to traders and packers.
March, April and May are key periods for the wellbeing of the upcoming crop as they carry risks of damage, March with the highest, related to weather conditions. If upcoming crop is hit with severe conditions and incur significant damage, Turkish sultana prices will surely go up. If no damage is incurred and first impressions on the volume of the new crop are promising prices may experience a decline after March. Of course, it is quite difficult to tell what the extent of this potential decline is.
As of January 31, 2018, total registered volume is about 243.000 tons. Total volume of exports as of end of January 2018 is about 130.000 tons. Estimating that about 30.000 tons of fruit is consumed domestically, total volume used is 160.000 tons. These numbers tell us that about 80.000 tonsof fruit is still in the hands of traders and packers, some already sold and some waiting to be, and about 90.000 tons of raw material is in the hands of farmers.
Raw material price movements of crop in the end of 2017: