The December 2017 shipments versus the December 2016 shipments on an inshell equivalent were flat. 67, 363 Inshell tons versus 67, 701 last year. For only a small change of 338 inshell tons, so basically equal.
The current receipts for the Walnut crop are at 614,979 tons. December brought in approximately another 409 tons of the tonnage versus the November number. The crop will be slightly higher than what the market had been expecting and lower than the Crop Estimate of 650,000 tons, and significantly less than last year’s 680,000 tons.
QUALITY
Many markets are receiving both their inshell and kernel loads shipped out in October/November. The quality of the crop continues to impress with great color and High Yields. The quality has taken some people by surprise due to all of the high heat days we had this summer. Many industry experts state this si the best quality California has had in the past ten years!
PRICING
Packers continue to have interest in moving LHP Chandler 20’s, 40’s and 80%. LHP Chandler 20% are at $4.05 and LHP Chandler 40% at $4.15-$4.20 FAS. 80% LHP Chandler at $4.25- $4.40 FAS, depending on packer. Jumbo/Large Chandler Inshell is at 1.70 per lbs. FAS.
The pieces market is very tight right now and we do not see that changing this year. Light Large Pieces are being offered at $4.05-$4.10 FAS . If you have some demand for Baker’s Pieces, please let us know. We do have some packers looking to move some Baker’s Pieces.
CHP market is also depending on packer. We have seen CHP offers from $3.60 up to $3.85 FAS depending on the packer. Supplies will be tight this year.
MARKET TO WATCH
Turkey has been extremely active the past few weeks since the import taxes were reduced from over 40% to 15%. All major Turkish buyers have been active with hundreds of loads being purchased in the past few weeks. We will see shipments for both January and February increase significantly into Turkey.
China is a major market in a funk presently. The Chinese crop is selling at cheaper prices than the California crop at this time resulting in some market rot claims in the market.. We have also received news that there were some additional arrests in China/Hong Kong over the weekend that may scare some additional buyers in that region. We will have to watch whether China will come back in to buy for this year’s Walnut crop.
The jury is out on India right now coming back in to buy in any real volume. Time will tell , but there is some industry experts that believe India will not come back to buy in any significant volume for the rest of the Walnut Crop Year and they will switch to purchase Chilean walnuts in the next two months.
There are numerous economic challenges and market dynamics impacting various markets during the beginning of 2018. We will continue to keep up updated on any market changes.
Sourse: http://www.summittreenuts.com